Reverse causation risk

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9 results
Meta-analysis
LDL-C ≥160 mg/dL associated with higher all-cause mortality (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.00–1.80) and CVD death (RR 1.79, 95% CI 1.26–2.54) vs LDL-C 70–129 mg/dL, in a meta-analysis of 1,232,694 adults
Causal status: Causal support strong for CVD via Mendelian randomization and RCTs; all-cause mortality signal weaker/borderline
Reliability / bias notes: All-cause mortality CI crosses 1.0; relationship appears non-linear/U-shaped, complicated by reverse causation in low-LDL groups (illness-driven cholesterol decline)
Peng et al · Medicine · 2022 · PMID 36482567
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Meta-analysis
Vs BMI 22.5–<25: obesity 30–<35 HR 1.45; 35–<40 HR 1.94; 40–<60 HR 2.76
Causal status: Predominantly association; causal contribution plausible
Reliability / bias notes: Muscle mass and fat distribution; low-BMI reverse causation
Global BMI Mortality Collaboration · Lancet · 2016 · PMID 27423262
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Observational study
Highest vs lowest activity roughly 25–35% lower mortality in major prospective meta-analyses
Causal status: Mostly association; causal support substantial but mortality RCT evidence limited
Reliability / bias notes: Reverse causation; questionnaire error; healthy-user bias
Arem et al · JAMA Intern Med · 2015 · PMID 25844730
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Cohort study
Never smoker = reference; current smoking ~2.18–2.81× mortality in large cohorts; former smokers can approach never-smoker risk after prolonged cessation
Causal status: Causal support strong; mortality evidence mostly prospective
Reliability / bias notes: Self-report; pack-years and cessation timing matter; reverse causation can affect recent quitters
Banks et al · BMC Med · 2015 · PMID 25857449
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Observational study
In nondiabetic adults, glycated hemoglobin showed a J-shaped association with death from any cause, remaining significant after adjustment for fasting glucose, in the ARIC cohort (n=11,092)
Causal status: Causal support strong for diabetes/CVD risk; all-cause mortality relationship J-shaped, so causal direction less clear at low HbA1c
Reliability / bias notes: J-shaped curve means very low HbA1c also carries excess mortality risk, likely reflecting reverse causation/frailty; overlaps with the separate diagnosed-diabetes question, so effects are kept modest to avoid double-counting the same underlying condition
Selvin et al · N Engl J Med · 2010 · PMID 20200384
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Cohort study
Job strain meta-analysis: CHD RR ~1.26; multicohort mortality HR 1.68 in men with cardiometabolic disease
Causal status: Association
Reliability / bias notes: Construct heterogeneity; socioeconomic confounding; reverse causation
PMID 29884468
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